Analysts Screw Up Ipad ProjectionsPosted: January 20th, 2011 | Author: quintendf | Filed under: Uncategorized | View Comments
In other news, dog bites man.
Seriously, why is it even considered discussion worthy when wall street analysts blow the sales projections for another piece of new tech? Other than the Apple devotees who love to play the “David V. Goliath” mentality any chance they get, who actually even cares about those projections?
We should know by now that the adoption rate of new tech products follow the Black Swan model… utterly unpredictable, belonging to the wild world of Extremistan. Analysts publish official sounding numbers because they are paid to do so, not because these numbers are any more reliable than the opinion of the average taxi driver.
In the fast moving tech world, being dependent on statistical predictions to make decisions is a critical mistake. The best hope is to identify broad macro-trends and build your plan of action around these basic concepts. A great example is the movement towards a more touch based interface experience. Although it is impossible to predict who the long term winners of this new form factor will be, it is possible to build a business around the larger shift that is occurring. A great example of this is Onswipe, the platform for “Insanely Easy Tablet Publishing”. Recognizing the massive growth of tablet devices, but not wanting to invest themselves completely in a single platform, Jason and Andres decided to build an entirely platform agnostic model that makes web content look incredible on any touch enabled device.
The takeaway? When building a business, don’t look to experts or statistical predictions for validation. Take the time to understand the broad trends occurring in the world around you, and move quickly to exploit them.